EDGECOURT

How it works

EdgeCourt is an analytics product, not a betting product. It computes and communicates edge; what you do with it is your business.

Every pick is logged before the game, and graded after it

This is the part that matters, so it goes first. Every pick EdgeCourt generates is written to a database the moment it is made — before the game is played. Once the game goes final, each pick is graded automatically against the real box score.

You cannot edit that record. Neither can we, in the ordinary sense: the picks table has no update path for any signed-in account, and results are written only by the grading job. There is no step at which a bad week can be tidied up.

What the grader records

For each graded pick: the game it was matched to, which stat it graded, the number it read from the box score, and which data source answered. A verdict you cannot check is an assertion, so the evidence is stored alongside the result.

Where the numbers come from

Lines and prices — The Odds API, timestamped. These are facts, and the app labels them as such.
Box scores and player game logs — ESPN's public endpoints. The same source grades the picks and feeds the model, deliberately: two parsers over one payload eventually disagree, and then grading and the model disagree about what a player actually scored.
Availability — reported injury and status data, shown with its source and timestamp.
Projections — a statistical model over the player's own game history.

The projection, in plain terms

A player's production is projected from his own recent per-minute rates, adjusted toward league norms when there is little history to go on — a small sample should not be trusted as though it were a large one. That produces a distribution rather than a single guess, which is why a pick card shows a shape with the line drawn through it and not just a percentage.

The width of that shape is the honest part. A single number hides how uncertain it is; the distribution does not.

What it will not do

No stake sizing, bankroll advice, or bet-size recommendations of any kind.
No claims of guaranteed profit, locks, or certainty. "Edge" describes a computed differential, never an outcome.
No unverifiable context presented as fact. Anything the model cannot verify from the data it was given is labelled unverified, or is not shown.
No cherry-picking. The record includes every pick, and always shows its denominator.

Honest about what is not proven yet

The record is new. The statistical layer is validated against historical seasons before it is trusted with anything a reader acts on, and until that validation is complete it is shown as working rather than used to drive a number. When the record has enough graded picks to mean something, it will be published here with its denominator attached.

Currently 0 graded picks. The record opens with the season.

19+

EdgeCourt is for adults. It is for research and entertainment, and it is not financial advice. If play stops being fun, help is available at ConnexOntario, ResponsibleGambling.org and GamblingTherapy.org.

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